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Model Solution

417970 · KOSDAQ · ₩417970 · 모델솔루션

₩9,660▼ ₩340 (3.40%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩20,576

vs the current price (₩9,660)

Enterprise value
₩94B
Equity value
₩132B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 113% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,660, the model needs an operating margin of 3.1% every year (it uses 8.8%).
  • Margins ranged from 4.0% to 12.0% over the last 4 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 8.5× against a typical 18.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩14,041
+45.4%
Base
₩20,576
+113.0%
Bull
₩31,835
+229.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 8.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 4 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.23, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩80B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩37B
Shares
6,396,700
Share price
₩9,660
Market cap
₩62B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩64B₩68B₩77B₩84B₩88B₩92B₩95B₩98B
Growth−3.6%5.8%13.1%4.9%4.4%3.9%3.5%3.0%
EBIT₩2.6B₩4.1B₩7.8B₩7.4B₩7.8B₩8.1B₩8.3B₩8.6B
EBIT margin4.0%6.0%10.1%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
After-tax EBIT₩1.9B₩2.9B₩5.6B₩5.4B₩5.6B₩5.8B₩6B₩6.2B
+ Depreciation———₩2.7B₩2.8B₩2.9B₩3B₩3.1B
− Capital spending₩4.3B₩2.1B₩1.6B₩3.4B₩3.5B₩3.7B₩3.8B₩3.9B
− Working capital−₩26B−₩7.5B₩7B₩595M₩561M₩519M₩484M₩429M
Free cash flow———₩4.1B₩4.4B₩4.6B₩4.8B₩5B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩3.8B₩3.8B₩3.7B₩3.6B₩3.5B

Terminal value ₩108B, worth ₩76B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩11,572 a share)Now 0.83×₩10,3880.90×₩16,6711.44×₩24,7872.14×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,133 a share)Now 8.52×₩14,49012.8×₩20,62718.2×₩38,43533.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,311 a share)Now 4.18×₩29,55112.8×₩42,06618.2×₩78,38233.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩21,427₩22,630₩24,111₩25,978₩28,407
6.8%₩20,031₩20,996₩22,159₩23,591₩25,397
7.3%₩18,858₩19,644₩20,576₩21,701₩23,086
7.8%₩17,858₩18,507₩19,267₩20,169₩21,256
8.3%₩16,995₩17,538₩18,166₩18,901₩19,772

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩62B
Enterprise value
₩24B
P/E
8.5×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.9%

Over time (at each year end)

2025202420232022
Price₩26,200₩8,900₩15,210₩17,600
Market cap₩168B₩57B₩97B₩113B
P/E25.7×12.5×35.8×17.6×
P/B2.3×0.9×1.6×1.8×
P/S2.2×0.8×1.5×1.7×
EV/EBITDA————
Dividend yield1.1%2.4%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Model Solution8.5×0.8×0.8×—2.9%
Doosan Enerbility200.6×4.5×2.0×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor84.5×25.1×34.0×76.1×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,135.2×13.9×36.4×2,185.7×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,308.5×55.2×162.6×—0.0%
EO Technics47.1×6.8×11.5×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,805.1×923.8×743.7×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)667.9×19.5×35.2×1,130.9×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Model Solution / 모델솔루션 / 417970 / KRX:417970

Source: KRX statistical information