Manyo Factory마녀공장
439090 · KOSDAQ · ₩439090 · 마녀공장
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩17,143
vs the current price (₩14,310)
- Enterprise value
- ₩193B
- Equity value
- ₩281B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩12,743
- −10.9%
- Base
- ₩17,143
- +19.8%
- Bull
- ₩24,494
- +71.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.1%).
Revenue growth
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 13.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 14.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩107B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩88B
- Shares
- 16,393,260
- Share price
- ₩14,310
- Market cap
- ₩235B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩105B | ₩128B | ₩113B | ₩111B | ₩115B | ₩119B | ₩123B | ₩127B |
| Growth | — | 21.8% | −11.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩16B | ₩19B | ₩10B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B | ₩17B |
| EBIT margin | 15.1% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩11B | ₩13B | ₩7.6B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3B | ₩1.7B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩391M | −₩278M | ₩559M | ₩564M | ₩552M | ₩537M | ₩520M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩9.4B | ₩9.8B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩8.8B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.2B | ₩7.9B | ₩7.6B |
Terminal value ₩217B, worth ₩152B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩7,213 a share)Now 1.98× | ₩13,4271.86× | ₩18,4712.56× | ₩30,6774.25× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩984 a share)Now 14.5× | ₩11,50511.7× | ₩21,33921.7× | ₩36,75737.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩685 a share)Now 20.9× | ₩8,00611.7× | ₩14,84921.7× | ₩25,57937.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩17,712 | ₩18,683 | ₩19,875 | ₩21,373 | ₩23,312 |
| 6.9% | ₩16,639 | ₩17,424 | ₩18,369 | ₩19,529 | ₩20,986 |
| 7.4% | ₩15,734 | ₩16,379 | ₩17,143 | ₩18,063 | ₩19,192 |
| 7.9% | ₩14,962 | ₩15,499 | ₩16,126 | ₩16,870 | ₩17,765 |
| 8.4% | ₩14,294 | ₩14,747 | ₩15,269 | ₩15,880 | ₩16,604 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩235B
- Enterprise value
- ₩144B
- P/E
- 14.5×
- P/B
- 2.0×
- P/S
- 2.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,690 | ₩14,610 | ₩22,500 |
| Market cap | ₩224B | ₩240B | ₩369B |
| P/E | 24.6× | 14.6× | 31.7× |
| P/B | 1.8× | 2.1× | 3.8× |
| P/S | 2.0× | 1.9× | 3.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manyo Factory | 14.5× | 2.0× | 2.2× | — | 0.0% |
| LG Chem | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.9% |
| Hanwha Solutions | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanwha | 6.1× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 1.4% |
| SKC | — | 1.8× | 1.7× | — | 0.0% |
| KCC | 0.9× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 9.0× | 0.0% |
| Kumho Petro Chemical | 5.2× | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 1.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 5.2× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 9.0× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Manyo Factory / 마녀공장 / 439090 / KRX:439090
Source: KRX statistical information