Manyo Factory

439090 · KOSDAQ · ₩439090 · 마녀공장

₩14,310▼ ₩350 (2.39%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩17,143

vs the current price (₩14,310)

Enterprise value
₩193B
Equity value
₩281B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩12,743
−10.9%
Base
₩17,143
+19.8%
Bull
₩24,494
+71.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 13.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 14.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩107B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩88B
Shares
16,393,260
Share price
₩14,310
Market cap
₩235B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩105B₩128B₩113B₩111B₩115B₩119B₩123B₩127B
Growth—21.8%−11.7%3.7%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.0%
EBIT₩16B₩19B₩10B₩15B₩15B₩16B₩16B₩17B
EBIT margin15.1%14.5%9.3%13.1%13.1%13.1%13.1%13.1%
After-tax EBIT₩11B₩13B₩7.6B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B₩12B
+ Depreciation———₩1.9B₩2B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.2B
− Capital spending₩3B₩1.7B₩2.6B₩2.4B₩2.5B₩2.6B₩2.7B₩2.8B
− Working capital—₩391M−₩278M₩559M₩564M₩552M₩537M₩520M
Free cash flow———₩9.4B₩9.8B₩10B₩11B₩11B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩8.8B₩8.5B₩8.2B₩7.9B₩7.6B

Terminal value ₩217B, worth ₩152B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩7,213 a share)Now 1.98×₩13,4271.86×₩18,4712.56×₩30,6774.25×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩984 a share)Now 14.5×₩11,50511.7×₩21,33921.7×₩36,75737.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩685 a share)Now 20.9×₩8,00611.7×₩14,84921.7×₩25,57937.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩17,712₩18,683₩19,875₩21,373₩23,312
6.9%₩16,639₩17,424₩18,369₩19,529₩20,986
7.4%₩15,734₩16,379₩17,143₩18,063₩19,192
7.9%₩14,962₩15,499₩16,126₩16,870₩17,765
8.4%₩14,294₩14,747₩15,269₩15,880₩16,604

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩235B
Enterprise value
₩144B
P/E
14.5×
P/B
2.0×
P/S
2.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩13,690₩14,610₩22,500
Market cap₩224B₩240B₩369B
P/E24.6×14.6×31.7×
P/B1.8×2.1×3.8×
P/S2.0×1.9×3.5×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield0.0%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Manyo Factory14.5×2.0×2.2×—0.0%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha6.1×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×9.0×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.2×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.2×0.4×0.4×9.0×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Manyo Factory / 마녀공장 / 439090 / KRX:439090

Source: KRX statistical information