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Shift UP

462870 · KOSPI · ₩462870 · 시프트업

₩29,550▲ ₩100 (0.34%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩68,558

vs the current price (₩29,550)

Enterprise value
₩3.3T
Equity value
₩4T
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 132% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩29,550, the model needs an operating margin of 20.9% every year (it uses 62.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −27.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩208B, operating profit ₩94B (45.2% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩232B, operating profit ₩101B (43.5% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • 49% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩52,757
+78.5%
Base
₩68,558
+132.0%
Bull
₩93,428
+216.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (62.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (31.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (31.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (31.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (31.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 1 years' revenue growth (31.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 62%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 2 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 2 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 2 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩243B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩518B
+ Stakes and investments
₩189B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
58,741,890
Share price
₩29,550
Market cap
₩1.7T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩224B₩295B₩304B₩363B₩414B₩449B₩462B
Growth—31.4%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩153B₩181B₩188B₩225B₩257B₩278B₩287B
EBIT margin68.1%61.6%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%
After-tax EBIT₩111B₩132B₩137B₩163B₩186B₩202B₩208B
+ Depreciation——₩4.3B₩5.1B₩5.8B₩6.3B₩6.5B
− Capital spending₩6.1B₩2.6B₩5.5B₩6.5B₩7.4B₩8.1B₩8.3B
− Working capital—₩50B₩24B₩24B₩20B₩14B₩5.4B
Free cash flow——₩111B₩138B₩164B₩186B₩201B
Discount factor——0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value——₩103B₩120B₩132B₩140B₩140B

Terminal value ₩3.8T, worth ₩2.7T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩16,730 a share)Now 1.77×₩30,7001.84×₩44,4852.66×₩81,2614.86×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩71,032₩75,930₩81,936₩89,476₩99,225
6.9%₩65,803₩69,779₩74,563₩80,430₩87,795
7.4%₩61,394₩64,674₩68,558₩73,231₩78,962
7.9%₩57,627₩60,369₩63,573₩67,367₩71,932
8.4%₩54,372₩56,690₩59,369₩62,499₩66,206

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.7T
Enterprise value
₩1.2T
P/E
9.0×
P/B
1.8×
P/S
7.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024
Price₩35,500₩63,400
Market cap₩2.1T₩3.7T
P/E10.9×25.2×
P/B2.3×4.9×
P/S7.1×16.6×
EV/EBITDA——
Dividend yield0.0%—

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shift UP9.0×1.8×7.1×—0.0%
Hyundai Autoever46.8×4.7×2.0×—0.6%
Krafton10.0×1.2×1.9×—1.2%
NC6.9×1.2×2.0×8.3×0.6%
Netmarble7.1×0.5×1.0×—2.6%
PearlAbyss7.9×2.0×3.0×5.1×0.0%
NHN22.9×1.1×0.6×3.9×0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.0×1.2×1.9×5.1×0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shift UP / 시프트업 / 462870 / KRX:462870

Source: KRX statistical information