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STX Green Logis

465770 · KOSPI · ₩465770 · STX그린로지스

₩1,889▼ ₩16 (0.84%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩82B
Equity value
−₩127B
WACC
4.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,889, the model needs an operating margin of 3.3% every year (it uses 0.9%).
  • Margins ranged from −6.5% to 10.1% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩4,080
+116.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (160% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (160% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (160% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (160% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (160% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 16.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 21.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.44, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩131B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩49B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
7,218,380
Share price
₩1,889
Market cap
₩14B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩28B₩71B₩191B₩163B₩195B₩223B₩241B₩249B
Growth—149.2%171.3%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩1.8B₩7.2B−₩12B₩1.5B₩1.8B₩2B₩2.2B₩2.2B
EBIT margin6.5%10.1%−6.5%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%
After-tax EBIT₩1.3B₩5.2B−₩9B₩1.1B₩1.3B₩1.5B₩1.6B₩1.6B
+ Depreciation———₩28B₩33B₩38B₩41B₩42B
− Capital spending₩8.8B₩16B₩18B₩34B₩41B₩47B₩51B₩52B
− Working capital—−₩45B₩25B−₩3.3B−₩3.2B−₩2.7B−₩1.9B−₩724M
Free cash flow———−₩2.5B−₩3.7B−₩5.2B−₩6.7B−₩8.1B
Discount factor———0.9540.9110.8690.8290.791
Present value———−₩2.4B−₩3.4B−₩4.5B−₩5.5B−₩6.4B

Terminal value −₩76B, worth −₩60B today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,298 a share)Now 0.36×₩3,1370.59×₩5,1840.98×₩20,5333.88×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.8%—————
4.3%—————
4.8%—————
5.3%—————
5.8%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩14B
Enterprise value
₩41B
P/E
—
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩5,660₩7,930₩12,330
Market cap₩41B₩57B₩89B
P/E—2.2×61.9×
P/B1.7×0.8×2.9×
P/S0.2×0.8×3.1×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield0.0%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
STX Green Logis—0.4×0.1×—0.0%
HMM14.6×0.7×1.8×—3.2%
Hyundai Glovis9.1×1.3×0.4×—3.1%
Pan Ocean9.0×0.5×0.5×—2.6%
CJ Logistics6.6×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
Korea Line3.4×0.2×0.5×—0.0%
Heung-A Shipping17.4×1.5×2.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)9.1×0.6×0.5×—1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: STX Green Logis / STX그린로지스 / 465770 / KRX:465770

Source: KRX statistical information