Kistron키스트론
475430 · KOSDAQ · ₩475430 · 키스트론
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩6,937
vs the current price (₩3,965)
- Enterprise value
- ₩99B
- Equity value
- ₩124B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 75% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,965, the model needs an operating margin of 6.2% every year (it uses 11.0%).
- Or revenue growth −26.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- 54% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩4,717
- +19.0%
- Base
- ₩6,937
- +75.0%
- Bull
- ₩10,765
- +171.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.0%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- 11%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 1 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 6.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 1 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 36%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 1 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 73 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.28, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩78B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩25B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩2M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 17,848,110
- Share price
- ₩3,965
- Market cap
- ₩71B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩69B | ₩80B | ₩82B | ₩85B | ₩88B | ₩90B |
| Growth | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩7.4B | ₩8.8B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.3B | ₩9.6B | ₩9.9B |
| EBIT margin | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩5.4B | ₩6.4B | ₩6.6B | ₩6.8B | ₩7B | ₩7.2B |
| + Depreciation | — | ₩4.3B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩4.7B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.9B | ₩6B |
| − Working capital | — | ₩840M | ₩865M | ₩891M | ₩918M | ₩945M |
| Free cash flow | — | ₩4.5B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.9B | ₩5.1B |
| Discount factor | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | ₩4.2B | ₩4B | ₩3.9B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.5B |
Terminal value ₩114B, worth ₩80B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩7,384 | ₩7,771 | ₩8,245 | ₩8,838 | ₩9,603 |
| 6.9% | ₩6,851 | ₩7,157 | ₩7,524 | ₩7,973 | ₩8,534 |
| 7.4% | ₩6,402 | ₩6,647 | ₩6,937 | ₩7,284 | ₩7,709 |
| 7.9% | ₩6,019 | ₩6,218 | ₩6,450 | ₩6,723 | ₩7,052 |
| 8.4% | ₩5,687 | ₩5,851 | ₩6,039 | ₩6,258 | ₩6,516 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩71B
- Enterprise value
- ₩46B
- P/E
- 5.1×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | |
|---|---|
| Price | ₩4,835 |
| Market cap | ₩86B |
| P/E | 9.8× |
| P/B | 0.5× |
| P/S | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.0% |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kistron | 5.1× | 0.4× | 0.9× | — | 1.3% |
| LS Electric | 61.0× | 11.1× | 4.2× | 37.7× | 0.0% |
| Hyosung Heavy Industries | 30.5× | 6.9× | 2.8× | — | 0.4% |
| HD Hyundai Electric | 19.1× | 7.2× | 3.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Gaon Cable | 106.8× | 12.9× | 2.4× | 55.6× | 0.0% |
| Sanil Electric | 27.2× | 7.4× | 8.3× | — | 0.8% |
| Taihan Cable & Solution | — | 2.2× | 1.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 30.5× | 7.3× | 3.3× | 46.7× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kistron / 키스트론 / 475430 / KRX:475430
Source: KRX statistical information