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Namyang Dairy Products

003920 · KOSPI · ₩003920 · 남양유업

₩40,800▼ ₩550 (1.33%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩581B
Equity value
−₩595B
WACC
7.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩40,800, the model needs an operating margin of 3.1% every year (it uses −4.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −9.0% to 0.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 66% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−4.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 19.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩950B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩17B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.6B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
7,564,596
incl. 1,891,149 preferred
Share price
₩40,800
Market cap
₩287B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩997B₩953B₩914B₩933B₩927B₩933B₩949B₩978B
Growth3.3%−4.4%−4.1%−1.8%−0.6%0.6%1.8%3.0%
EBIT−₩72B−₩9.8B₩5.2B−₩37B−₩37B−₩37B−₩38B−₩39B
EBIT margin−7.3%−1.0%0.6%−4.0%−4.0%−4.0%−4.0%−4.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩52B−₩7.1B₩3.8B−₩27B−₩27B−₩27B−₩28B−₩28B
+ Depreciation———₩5.6B₩5.6B₩5.6B₩5.7B₩5.9B
− Capital spending₩8B₩2.8B₩9.1B₩6.5B₩6.5B₩6.5B₩6.6B₩6.8B
− Working capital−₩5.2B−₩33B−₩6.6B−₩3.4B−₩1.1B₩1.1B₩3.3B₩5.6B
Free cash flow———−₩25B−₩27B−₩29B−₩32B−₩35B
Discount factor———0.9330.8710.8130.7590.709
Present value———−₩23B−₩23B−₩24B−₩24B−₩25B

Terminal value −₩652B, worth −₩462B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩122,325 a share)Now 0.33×₩42,8840.35×₩66,2690.54×₩96,1440.79×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.1%—————
6.6%—————
7.1%—————
7.6%—————
8.1%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩231B
Enterprise value
₩235B
P/E
18.0×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩50,100₩58,700₩60,703₩48,902₩40,702
Market cap₩284B₩333B₩344B₩277B₩231B
P/E40.0×1,332.2×———
P/B0.3×0.5×0.5×0.4×0.3×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.9%0.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Namyang Dairy Products18.0×0.3×0.2×—3.5%
Samyang Foods17.6×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.8×1.1×1.3×5.4×3.0%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.3×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki17.4×0.6×0.3×—2.8%
Hite Jinro23.7×1.0×0.5×6.4×4.4%
Similar companies (median)17.4×0.9×0.6×5.9×2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Namyang Dairy Products / 남양유업 / 003920 / KRX:003920

Source: KRX statistical information