KOSDAQ · 267980 · Food & Beverage · ₩267980

Maeil Dairies매일유업

267980 · KOSDAQ · ₩267980 · 매일유업

₩33,150▲ ₩200 (0.61%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩131,634

vs the current price (₩33,150)

Enterprise value: ₩904B
Equity value: ₩1T
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 297% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩33,150, the model needs an operating margin of 1.1% every year (it uses 3.9%).
Today's P/E is 3.8× against a typical 6.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩50,417; +52.1%
Base: ₩131,634; +297.1%
Bull: ₩277,918; +738.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.9%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 13%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 23%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 33%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin3.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending1.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital10.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩1.9T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩83B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩22B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩985M
Shares: 7,663,638
Share price: ₩33,150
Market cap: ₩254B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩1.8T	₩1.8T	₩1.8T	₩1.9T	₩2T	₩2.1T	₩2.1T	₩2.2T
Growth	5.8%	1.6%	1.8%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
EBIT	₩72B	₩70B	₩60B	₩75B	₩78B	₩80B	₩82B	₩85B
EBIT margin	4.1%	3.9%	3.3%	3.9%	3.9%	3.9%	3.9%	3.9%
After-tax EBIT	₩52B	₩51B	₩44B	₩55B	₩56B	₩58B	₩60B	₩62B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩27B	₩28B	₩29B	₩30B	₩30B
− Capital spending	₩35B	₩36B	₩25B	₩35B	₩36B	₩37B	₩38B	₩39B
− Working capital	−₩75B	₩19B	₩49B	₩5.9B	₩6.1B	₩6.3B	₩6.5B	₩6.7B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩41B	₩42B	₩44B	₩45B	₩46B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.754	0.703
Present value	—	—	—	₩38B	₩37B	₩35B	₩34B	₩32B

Terminal value ₩1T, worth ₩728B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩85,803 a share)Now 0.39×	₩36,3090.42×	₩51,0380.59×	₩89,7831.05×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩8,664 a share)Now 3.83×	₩35,1874.06×	₩53,8276.21×	₩117,17613.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩8,461 a share)Now 3.92×	₩34,3634.06×	₩52,5676.21×	₩114,43313.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	₩140,027	₩148,955	₩159,930	₩173,759	₩191,734
6.8%	₩128,682	₩135,768	₩144,305	₩154,799	₩168,021
7.3%	₩119,147	₩124,862	₩131,634	₩139,792	₩149,821
7.8%	₩111,022	₩115,694	₩121,153	₩127,621	₩135,412
8.3%	₩104,019	₩107,882	₩112,341	₩117,552	₩123,725

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩254B
Enterprise value: ₩149B
P/E: 3.8×
P/B: 0.4×
P/S: 0.1×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 3.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩35,200	₩34,750	₩41,250	₩52,800	₩68,700
Market cap	₩270B	₩266B	₩316B	₩405B	₩526B
P/E	4.8×	5.9×	5.7×	28.1×	7.1×
P/B	0.4×	0.5×	0.6×	0.8×	1.1×
P/S	0.1×	0.1×	0.2×	0.2×	0.3×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	3.7%	3.6%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Maeil Dairies	3.8×	0.4×	0.1×	—	3.9%
Samyang Foods	17.6×	5.6×	3.1×	—	0.4%
Orion	10.8×	1.1×	1.3×	5.4×	3.0%
CJ Cheiljedang	—	0.3×	0.1×	—	3.5%
Nongshim	12.3×	0.8×	0.7×	—	1.5%
Otoki	17.4×	0.6×	0.3×	—	2.8%
Hite Jinro	23.7×	1.0×	0.5×	6.4×	4.4%
Similar companies (median)	17.4×	0.9×	0.6×	5.9×	2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Maeil Dairies / 매일유업 / 267980 / KRX:267980

Source: KRX statistical information